Door dash stock orice11/15/2023 ![]() Without reliable fundamental research, investors have no way of gauging whether a stock is expensive or cheap.ĭisclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme. With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels. For reference, DoorDash’s invested capital increased $813 million (92% of 2019 revenue) year-over-year in 2019 and $3.9 billion (137% of 2020 revenue) YoY in 2020.įundamental Research Provides Clarity in Frothy MarketsĢ022 has quickly shown investors that fundamentals matter and stocks don’t only go up. This assumption is highly unlikely but creates best-case scenarios that demonstrate how high expectations embedded in the current valuation are. Implied GOV: DCF ScenariosĭASH DCF Implied Gross Order Volume New Constructs, LLCĮach of the above scenarios assume DoorDash grows revenue, NOPAT, and FCF without increasing working capital or fixed assets. DoorDash’s current stock price implies its GOV ten years from now will be nearly four times greater than Uber’s TTM bookings.įigure 2: Historical GOV vs. For reference, I also include the bookings of Uber, which represent the total dollars spent on Uber’s platform, similar to DoorDash’s GOV metric. This scenario may prove too optimistic as it assumes a significant improvement in NOPAT margin in an increasingly commoditized industry.įigure 2 compares DoorDash’s implied future gross order volume in these scenarios to its historical GOV. At its 3Q21 take rate, this scenario equates to over $125 billion in gross order volume in 2030, which would equal 40% of the projected 2030 TAM. Even in this scenario, DoorDash would earn $15.3 billion in revenue in 2030. The stock is, optimistically, worth just $34/share today – a 67% downside.
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